Sniffing Out A Recession

Estimated read time: 1 minute and 40 seconds

In this week’s newsletter:

1. Market recap

2. Top holdings: what I am buying & selling

Market Recap

YTD returns:

• S&P 500: +11.53%

• Nasdaq: +26.51%

• Russell 2000: +3.78%

• US Dollar ($UUP): +2.73%

• Gold ($GLD): +6.71%

ISM Manufacturing: 46.9 Actual, 47 Forecast, 47.1 Prior

#Slowing

Why do we even care about ISM Manufacturing?

1. Gauge of economic activity: Manufacturing is a significant component of the overall economy. The ISM manufacturing index measures various factors such as new orders, production levels, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

2. Leading indicator: Changes in manufacturing activity can foreshadow shifts in the overall economy. If the index shows an increase in new orders and production, it suggests growing demand and potential economic expansion. Or, the opposite…

3. Employment and wages: When the ISM manufacturing index indicates growth and increased production, it often leads to higher demand for labor and job creation within the sector. This, in turn, can have positive ripple effects on other industries and the overall employment landscape. Or, the opposite…

4. Stock market and investor sentiment: Positive manufacturing data can boost investor confidence, leading to increased investment in manufacturing and related industries. On the other hand, a decline in the index may raise concerns about economic growth and negatively impact stock markets.

How we feeling out there? Recession still in play?

Or do we need AI bull**** to distract us??

It’s truly amazing what companies will do to pad their #slowing growth and demand. When in doubt, just talk about a shiny new toy like AI and all of your problems will be solved!

Dot Com bubble, AI bubble….

In The Account | my top holdings

1. GOLD - $GLD

2. BONDS - $IIGD

3. UTILITIES, STAPLES, LOW BETA - $XLU, $XLP, $SPLV

On The Radar | positions I want to build / sizing up

1. BONDS

Off The Grid | removed positions / short selling opportunities

1. INDUSTRIALS - $XLI

2. HIGH BETA - $SPHB

3. RETAIL - $XRT

4. ENERGY - $XOP

5. TECH - $XLK, $QQQ, $GOOGL, $TSLA, $NFLX

6. CRYPTO - $BITO, $MSTR

7. HIGH YIELD - $HYG

8. FINANCIALS - $XLF

Until next week....

-BW

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.