Like Clockwork

Estimated read time: 1 minute and 53 seconds

In this week’s newsletter:

1. Market recap

2. Skills & data used this week

3. Top holdings: what I am buying & selling

Market Recap

YTD returns:

• S&P 500: +2.01%

• Nasdaq: +11.12%

• Russell 2000: -2.05%

• US Dollar ($UUP): +1.42

• Gold ($GLD): +8.32%

CPI +6% YoY, estimated +6.6%, prior +6.4%

I'm going to keep this nice and simple because I've got a golf trip with the boys this week...inflation is STILL high and the Fed has NOT backed off on hiking interest rates.

Skills & Data Used This Week

On June 25th, 2022 I published my first post "Are You Paying Attention?"

The article highlighted rising interest rates in a mediocre year for the market. I noted the combination of rising rates (cost to borrow) while growth slows is a brutal combo.

Last week my post was titled "Pay F****** Attention"

The article, unsurprisingly, discussed how rates (specifically in the short term) have been rising much faster than longer term rates. This, also known as an inverted yield curve, is detrimental to financial institutions....also knows as BANKS.

Anything in the news on banks over the past week? Ya know, the place where our direct deposits go? Who we rely on for liquidity?

First SVB, then Credit Suisse, who's next?

Personally speaking, I think the only thing keeping this market from tanking is a "red hot" unemployment rate.

That's besides that point that people are working more than 1 job because inflation is still ripping the faces of some people..but that's besides the point.

Take a look at how unemployment has followed an inverted yield curve over the years.

While correlation doesn't always mean causation, and inverted yield curve at its roots has negative impacts to our economy.

What's even worse is that the Fed influences the short end of the curve, and with inflation still persistent we're not out of the woods on future rate hikes. That could only make this blue line go further down...

Can't wait to see how Jerome f***s this up next week.

In The Account | my top holdings

1. Gold ($GLD) & Cash ($UUP)

   1. Market go down but these positions go...up? Yeah, we like that.

On The Radar | positions I want to build / sizing up

1. NOTHING

Off The Grid | removed positions / short selling opportunities

1. TECH - $XLK, $QQQ, $GOOGL, $TSLA

2. RETAIL - $XRT

3. HIGH BETA - $SPHB

4. CRYPTO - $BITO, $MSTR

5. HIGH YIELD - $HYG

6. ENERGY - $XOP

Until next week....

-BW

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.